A business deciding whether to chase a re-tender wants a simple answer: how often does the current supplier keep the work? The public record cannot answer that for one contract. It can show what happened last time, on similar contracts at the same agency. That history is useful. It is not a forecast.

What the record can show

A contract notice names the supplier and the end date. A later notice, for similar work at the same agency, sometimes looks like the follow-on. When the supplier on that later notice is different, the work changed hands. When it is the same supplier, or the original contract was extended, the incumbent kept it.

Contract Horizon only counts a follow-on when it is comparable: same agency, same category, a start near the earlier end date, a similar value, and overlapping wording. If any comparable notice is the same supplier, that counts as kept. A change counts only when one different supplier stands out. If several suppliers are equally plausible, the case is left out. A contract with no follow-on after the window has closed is also left out. It is not treated as a change.

Among the comparable follow-ons that can be matched, 19% went to a different supplier. The rest stayed with the same supplier or were extended.

That share is counted from the notices loaded now. It is the same kind of history the re-tender score uses. It is not a success rate for the score, and it will move as new notices are published.

Matching is approximate. The agency does not publish a link that says "this contract replaced that one". Some real replacements will be missed, and some matches will be wrong. Read the notice before you rely on a row.

It varies by agency and by category

An overall share hides the useful part. One agency may keep the same supplier for a kind of work year after year. Another may go back to market often. The same agency can behave differently in two categories. A panel purchase is different again: the next piece of work may only be open to businesses already on the panel.

That is why a single number for "government contracts" is a weak guide. The re-tender score looks at earlier contracts for the same agency and the same UNSPSC class, and only at outcomes that were already knowable before the contract you are looking at started. How the re-tender score works sets out the rules. The short page how the score works is the same method in fewer words.

What the bands mean if you are deciding whether to chase it

The score is a share of those earlier outcomes, not a promise about the next tender.

  • Higher chance of a new supplier is 70 and above. On similar earlier contracts, the supplier changed more often than they stayed.
  • About average is 40 to 69. Those earlier contracts went both ways.
  • Incumbent usually keeps it is under 40. The same supplier kept the work more often.

A higher chance is not a certainty. A lower band is not a closed door. The agency can still extend, vary the contract, buy through a panel, or go back to market. When federal contracts end explains those choices. You still have to judge fit, evidence, and whether you can show value for money.

When you want to see the contracts themselves, open the contracts list and filter to your category.

Contract Horizon is an independent reading of the public record. It is not part of AusTender or the Australian Government.