When a federal contract is coming to an end, the big question for a supplier is simple: is this work likely to change hands? The re-tender score is Contract Horizon's way of answering it from the public record. It looks at what this agency has done before with similar work, and tells you how often that work went to a new supplier.

It is history, not a forecast. An agency's next decision depends on things no public record shows, such as how the current supplier is performing and what the agency needs now. The score gives you a starting point, not an answer.

What the score compares

For each contract, Contract Horizon looks at earlier contracts from the same agency in the same UNSPSC class, the goods and services category the agency chose on the contract notice. If you are not sure what those fields are, our guide to reading a contract notice explains them.

For each of those earlier contracts, it looks for the likely replacement: a later contract with a close description, a start date near the earlier contract's end date, and a broadly similar value.

What counts as a clear outcome

An earlier contract counts towards the score only when its outcome is clear. There are three kinds of clear outcome:

  • A different supplier won the likely replacement.
  • The same supplier won it.
  • The contract was extended. There was no replacement, but an amendment moved the end date out.

Some earlier contracts are left out. If several later contracts look equally like the replacement, the result is ambiguous, so it is not counted as a win for either side. If there is no plausible replacement and no extension, it is not counted either.

The score also uses only outcomes that were already knowable before the contract you are looking at started. That keeps it honest. It is built only from what someone could have known at the time, which is also how we test it against what happened next.

The score and the retention rate

The re-tender score is the percentage of clear outcomes where the work changed supplier. Beside it, you will see the retention rate, which is the percentage where the same supplier kept the work, either by winning the replacement or through an extension. Together they cover every clear outcome.

For example, if an agency has 10 earlier contracts for similar work with clear outcomes, and 7 went to a different supplier, the score is 70% and the retention rate is 30%.

Each score comes with a short explanation in plain words, showing how many earlier contracts were counted and how they turned out. It also notes when the contract you are looking at already has a likely replacement or has been extended.

The bands

  • 70 and above is a high score. This agency has usually given similar work to a new supplier.
  • 40 to 69 is a mixed score. The history could go either way.
  • Under 40 is a low score. The current supplier has usually kept the work.

When there is no score

You will see "not enough history" instead of a score when fewer than five earlier contracts have a clear outcome. Five is a small number, but below that a single contract would swing the percentage too far to mean much. The explanation still shows what was found, so you can judge it yourself.

A contract with no agency or no UNSPSC category recorded gets no score, because there is nothing to compare it with.

The limits

The score counts published contract notices only. It does not see open tenders, the number of bids, or why an agency chose a supplier. Matching a contract to its replacement is a careful estimate from the description, dates and value, not a link the agency publishes. Agencies also change how they buy over time, for example by moving work onto a panel.

Finance's guidance lists what officials weigh before extending a contract, including value for money, the supplier's performance, and whether there is time to run a new procurement (Contracts End Dates (opens in a new tab)). The score cannot see any of those. Our guide to when federal contracts end explains them.

Where to find it

The re-tender score is shown on the Pro and Team plans, along with contract-family history and limited-tender reasons in plain words. Every plan, including Free, shows the open or limited badge, the extension timeline, and the 24-month expiry calendar. The pricing page sets out what each plan includes. Once you have found a contract worth chasing, the guide to preparing for a re-tender 6 to 12 months out covers what to do next.

Contract Horizon is an independent reading of the public record. The contract notice on AusTender is always the source to check.